Gary Gensler, the Chair of the SEC, is predicted to resign early in 2025 after President Joe Biden's decision not to seek re-election. Markus Thielen of 10X Research suggests that a Trump presidency will likely end Gensler's tenure, especially given Trump's running mate J.D. Vance's criticism of Gensler's crypto regulation approach. Biden’s announcement also opens a potential pathway for Democrats to regain some favor with crypto voters by nominating a more crypto-friendly candidate.

SEC Chair Gary Gensler Predicted to Resign Early

Gary Gensler, the Chair of the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), is predicted to resign in the first two months of 2025 after President Joe Biden finishes his term. This prediction came from Markus Thielen, the founder of 10X Research, who mentioned in a July 21 market report that SEC Chairs typically step down when a new administration takes office. 

Thielen believes that a Trump presidency will very likely spell the end of Gensler's tenure. Gensler’s term is only supposed to end on June 5 of 2026, but he is expected to resign by January or February 2025. Thielen's forecast is tied to Biden's decision not to seek re-election, which he also believes basically guarantees Trump’s return to the White House.

Thielen also mentioned the impact of this political shift on the crypto market. He pointed out  that Trump’s running mate, J.D. Vance, has very vocally criticized Gensler's approach to crypto regulation by labeling it as overly politicized. 

Furthermore, Thielen pointed to some bullish factors for the crypto market, including rumors of a big announcement by Trump at an upcoming Bitcoin conference in Tennessee. Some speculation suggests that Trump may declare Bitcoin a strategic reserve asset, which could trigger a very impressive rise in Bitcoin’s price. 

Thielen then advised investors to avoid taking profits or shorting Bitcoin before Trump’s speech as he believes that Bitcoin could soon surpass its previous all-time high of $68,300.

Biden Ends Reelection Bid

United States President Joe Biden has officially ended his re-election bid just four months before election day. In his July 21 statement, Biden did not share any specific reasons for his decision but claimed it was in the “best interest of my party and my country.” 

This decision leaves the Democratic Party without a nominee for the 2024 US Presidential election on Nov. 5. Recent speculation suggested that Vice President Kamala Harris might replace Biden, but no official replacement has been confirmed just yet.

Biden has faced a lot of controversy in the crypto industry because of his opposition to the sector. On June 1, he vetoed a resolution overruling SEC Staff Accounting Bulletin No. 121, which led to backlash from the crypto community, arguing it hindered innovation in the US. Cody Carbone, Digital Chamber chief policy officer, stated that this veto was “a slap in the face to innovation and financial freedom.”

Macroeconomic analyst Lyn Alden suggested in a recent interview that a Trump victory in the upcoming US presidential elections could lead to the extension of corporate tax cuts that could potentially benefit the crypto markets.

Trump has been very open about his pro-crypto stance, and even revealed plans to release another non-fungible token (NFT) collection after his previous three collections sold out very quickly. He also believes it is extremely important for the US to lead in the crypto industry to prevent other nations from taking over the sector.

Traders Bet Millions on Biden's Nomination Status

Almost $80 million was in play across six bets related to President Joe Biden's status as the Democratic nominee, according to Polymarket data. The largest market pool, which asked bettors to pick the Democratic nominee, has been thrown into uncertainty with Biden's resignation. 

In total, $51.5 million was bet directly on or against Biden in a pool of $205 million. By the end of June, the market predicting Biden as the nominee was trading at 90 cents, indicating a 90% chance. However, volatility in early July saw this drop to 80 cents by July 17.

Markets speculating on Biden's resignation pooled $27.5 million, with the largest market, involving $21 million, asking if Biden would drop out of the race. Other markets speculated on the specific date of his resignation or if he'd appear on state ballots. 

Polymarket stated on X that traders gave Biden an edge to drop out in the days leading up to the announcement, with market activity spiking to 100% just before the news broke. The user polybets1 emerged as the most profitable political trader, making $691,000 in profit on positions worth $1.7 million, including bets on Biden, Kamala Harris, and Donald Trump.

Democrats Could Win Back Crypto Voters

United States Democrats may still have a chance to woo back crypto voters now that President Joe Biden has stepped out of the race. Variant Fund chief legal officer and former Blockchain Association lawyer Jake Chervinsky said in a July 22 post on X that this would give the party, which has been largely anti-crypto under Biden, a “huge opportunity to win back a big share of the crypto vote.” 

He believes that the new nominee should prioritize this, especially in swing states where crypto is a major issue. Chervinsky also pointed out that many crypto supporters are “single-issue voters” who could influence the election outcome in states like Michigan and Pennsylvania.

While crypto is not inherently a partisan issue, and some Democrats do support it, Chervinsky stated that many left-leaning people feel conflicted because of the Biden administration’s anti-crypto policies. 

He actually provided five recommendations for the new candidate to woo back crypto voters, including recognizing crypto’s importance for the US economy, acknowledging the failures of current regulatory approaches, proposing balanced policies for innovation and consumer protection, suggesting crypto-friendly appointees for key agencies like the SEC and CFTC, and engaging with crypto industry stakeholders.

Chervinsky concluded that Democrats have a big opportunity, but it is up to the new nominee to seize it. The crypto policy group the CEDAR Innovation Foundation agrees with this, and emphasized presenting a new vision for American innovation that keeps innovation jobs in America, ensures global competitiveness in digital assets, and heralds a new era of financial inclusion and prosperity.

On July 22, Cinneamhain Ventures partner Adam Cochran suggested that Kamala Harris has no public stance on crypto yet, but her potential running mates are pro-crypto. He indicated that given the backlash against current policies, there might be an attempt to distance from Gensler, Warren, and Biden-era policies on crypto. Meanwhile, Messari founder Ryan Selkis said that Harris will likely be ”honest about how enlightened she is now with crypto” when appealing to swing voters.