Dogecoin (DOGE) Price Will Likely Fall Short of a 74% Rally

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Dogecoin’s (DOGE) price has not only posted a disappointing run in the last few days, it is susceptible to a decline.

The lack of growth is pushing investors to either offset their losses or secure whatever little gains they have made.

Dogecoin Investors Move to Sell

Dogecoin’s price fell out of the bullish descending wedge, but the recent increase in price put it back in rekindling the hope of a breakout. However, the meme coin seems to be running out of steam following a bearish June.

This is pushing DOGE holders to sell their holdings for profit instead of HODLing. Upon observing the active addresses by profitability, one can notice that the investors in profit are rising.

Participation from these investors is a sign of profit booking, and their domination exceeding 25% is a bearish signal. This is also the case with Dogecoin, given that 27% of all active addresses are sitting in profit right now.

Dogecoin Active Addresses by Profitability. Source: Into TheBlock

Further substantiating this sentiment is the Market Value to Realized Value Ratio (MVRV). The MVRV ratio assesses investor profit and loss. Dogecoin’s 30-day MVRV stands at 8.6%, indicating profitability, which may lead to selling pressure.

Historically, DOGE tends to correct when the MVRV is between 6% and 20%, known as the danger zone. Thus, Dogecoin’s price is vulnerable to correction.

Dogecoin MVRV Ratio. Source: Santiment

DOGE Price Prediction: Not a Rise Ahead

Dogecoin’s price trading at $0.124 is aiming at a breakout above $0.128. Technically, this would be a sign that DOGE will note a potential 74% rise. However, considering the aforementioned factors, this will not be happening.

Instead, the meme coin could note a drawdown from $0.128, potentially testing $0.116 as support. Losing it would send DOGE $0.105, too, wiping out all 17% gains noted this week.

Dogecoin Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

But on the off chance that Dogecoin’s price does break out, it still won’t note any massive rally but hovers around $0.130. The bearish thesis would be considered invalidated only when $0.142 is flipped into support.