NATO steered by Germany thanks to Trump

As Trump has a high chance of winning the American elections, the United States might start disengaging from NATO. In such a case, facing the Russian threat, Germany should pursue a massive rearmament policy to control the Russian bear.

A Reorientation of NATO

The United States, which was supposed to be the guarantor of stability in Europe, is now the great power the most unstable in the world.

The probable return of Trump to the presidency will likely mark the end of US support to Ukraine, and at least a partial disengagement from NATO and the transatlantic alliance.

According to interviews with former Trump national security officials and defense experts likely to serve in a second Trump term, it is unlikely that the latter will leave NATO outright. But even if he does not officially leave the organization, that does not mean NATO would survive intact through a second Trump term.

In exchange for continued US participation, Trump would not only expect European countries to radically increase their spending for NATO, but he would also undertake a “radical reorientation” of NATO.

The US would maintain its nuclear umbrella over Europe by keeping its air power and bases in Germany, England, and Turkey, as well as its naval forces.

Meanwhile, the bulk of the infantry, tanks, logistics, and artillery would eventually shift from American to European hands.

This change would imply significantly reducing America’s role in European security.

NATO Facing the Chinese Threat

Trump would like to maintain NATO, but with a much more active Europe involved in defense spending. He is aware that Europe is a considerable asset against the Russian-Chinese alliance.

The atrophy of the US defense industrial base, production capacity, and defense budget means that America is simply not capable of opposing Russia and China alone.

And since China is the greatest threat, most American resources need to be committed to East Asia. It is simply the brutal logic of the relative balance of economic and military forces.

The Return of Germany?

The partial withdrawal of the United States makes Germany the most important country in Europe economically and militarily. With 83 million inhabitants, Germany is the most populous state in the EU.

It represents more than one fifth of the EU’s GDP and about a quarter of the EU’s manufacturing output.

Germany’s level of technological sophistication, at least regarding manufactured goods, is arguably higher than that of other European countries.

Although its economy is more focused on manufacturing than almost all other European countries, Germany also manages to have a higher standard of living than other major European economies (and higher than the United Kingdom).

This is not to say that Germany is the leader of the EU or NATO. The EU does not have a single leader, and with US disengagement, NATO doesn’t have one either.

But Germany is so large and significant that if it doesn’t take the lead and exert some form of leadership within these organizations, they tend to be rudderless and inert.

Germany is no longer Europe’s villain.

The Nazis were the most destructive and infamous regime of the modern era until now. But today’s Germany is not that of the Nazis. Not only are the individuals guilty of the Nazi atrocities dead and gone, but the modern German state is founded on liberal values entirely contrary to everything the Nazis represented.

Russia vs. NATO

The second thing Germans should realize is that Germany is already at war, not a war it has chosen itself, but a war it cannot choose to avoid.

Recently, Russia attempted to assassinate the CEO of Rheinmetall, Germany’s leading arms manufacturer. The Russians reportedly sabotaged a German weapons factory in May, and Germany arrested other Russians allegedly planning further sabotage. Russia is also waging a constant cyber war against Germany.

The Russians still see Germany as an enemy and a threat and are determined to weaken it economically and politically, no matter what Germany does.

Germans are, rightly, very reluctant to take on Russia, especially after the disaster of the world wars a century ago. But Russia is not leaving Germany a choice. Germany can stand up and fight back, or it can simply lose.

Germans should not imagine that Putin or his successors will stop at conquering Ukraine. Ukraine, Poland, and the rest of Eastern Europe do not constitute a buffer that will guarantee Germany’s safety. On the contrary, they are potential fuel for the Russian war machine.

Russia Ready to Invade Germany?

The Russian empire has always operated by enslaving conquered peoples and forcing them to participate in further wars of conquest.

Ukrainians from the conquered territories have been mobilized en masse and sent to the front to fight against still free Ukrainians. If the rest of Ukraine is conquered, a similar process will occur: Poles, Estonians, Moldovans, and everyone else that will be next on Putin’s menu will find themselves fighting.

And if Poland and the rest of Eastern Europe fall, Germans will find themselves fighting enslaved Poles, Estonians, and Moldovans.

In other words, the more Russia is allowed to conquer peoples, the stronger it gets. If the USSR and the old Russian Empire were such formidable enemies, it is because they could rely on large numbers of subjugated Poles, Ukrainians, other Europeans, and Central Asians to swell the ranks of their armies and bear the brunt of the fighting.

Will Germany Save NATO?

The stakes are very high. If Germany does not take the lead, Europe will fragment, decline, and fall under Russian sway.

Germany must seriously and vigorously rearm – it must allocate at least 4% of its GDP to the military, not 2%, and become the leading supplier of armaments to Ukraine.

This will require some short-term economic sacrifices, higher deficits, and cuts in social spending.

German leaders must understand the urgency of the situation they face. The United States has been Germany and Europe’s great distant protector since the end of World War II. Germany, and by extension Europe, must now defend itself, or fall under the control of Russia.