Is It the Right Time to Buy Bitcoin?

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The recent fluctuations in bitcoin (BTC) have fueled concern among investors, while experts clash with varied and often contradictory forecasts. Upcoming price movements raise many questions, and no certainty seems to emerge. Between worries and hopes, bitcoin’s future remains unpredictable, fueling debates and speculations alike.

Bitcoin: Moustache sees a unique buying opportunity

A crypto analyst, known by the pseudonym Moustache, claims that the current period could represent a unique buying opportunity for bitcoin. Followed by more than 126,000 users on X, he shared his conviction on this social network, that bitcoin is about to enter the Spring phase of the Wyckoff reaccumulation model. This technical analysis model uses price and volume patterns to predict potential price movements. The Spring phase is particularly followed by traders, as it often signals a marked price recovery.

By analyzing bitcoin’s daily chart, Moustache notes price consolidation, with key support levels in May and June 2024. Prices fell below $57,000 in May to a low of about $56,500. Resistance is situated between $72,000 and the March 2024 highs. Currently, bitcoin is retesting this support, having briefly pierced $60,000 to reach $56,900 on July 4. According to Moustache, this situation could be a prelude to a Spring phase, especially if the current losses do not materialize.

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The caution of Willy Woo and the capitulation of miners

Not all analysts share Moustache’s optimistic view. Willy Woo, an expert specialized in on-chain analysis, attributes the recent price drop to miner capitulation. Examining the bitcoin Hash Ribbons indicators, Willy Woo points out that this capitulation is ongoing and particularly affects the least efficient miners.

Since the halving on April 20, which reduced bitcoin rewards by half to 3.125 BTC, miners have been under increased pressure. Only the most efficient can continue to operate profitably, while those who cannot upgrade their equipment are forced to exit the market. On-chain data shows that these miners have sold their BTC, contributing to the price correction observed since April.

Conversely, long-term holders, mostly institutions and whales, have stopped selling since mid-January 2024, after the SEC approval of the first spot Bitcoin ETF. Consequently, the illiquid bitcoin supply, representing coins that have not been moved for more than two years, is near a historic high.

The current drop in bitcoin divides analysts. On one side, Moustache sees an imminent buying opportunity based on the Wyckoff model, while Willy Woo warns of the implications of miner capitulation. While the latter prefers to play the caution card, several analysts are already sounding the alarm by predicting a fall of the crypto queen below $50,000.