Polymarket Activity Surges Following Speculation Around Biden’s Election Withdrawal

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polymarket biden trump debate

LUCKNOW (CoinChapter.com) — President Joe Biden’s future in the 2024 presidential race is hanging in the balance after his recent presidential debate. Crypto betting platforms like Polymarket are witnessing unprecedented activity as speculation rose over his potential election withdrawal.

The first presidential debate left many voters questioning Biden’s ability to secure another term. At 81 years old, Biden appeared to struggle with his sentences and slur his speech at times. He even engaged in an unusual exchange about golfing skills with Trump. In contrast, Trump—while lying through his teeth—maintained composure, focusing on key issues like immigration and foreign policy while highlighting Biden’s missteps.

Is Biden Dropping Out? Betting Odds Skyrocket

Following the debate, Polymarket traders have adjusted their bets. The odds of Biden dropping out before the November election soared from 19% to 41%.

The odds of Biden withdrawal in November presidential election. — *41% people voted in favour of Biden’s potential withdrawal. Source: Polymarket*

His chances of securing another term plummeted from 34% to 21%. Meanwhile, odds for other potential Democratic candidates like Gavin Newsom, Kamala Harris, and Michelle Obama have increased.

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A CBS News and YouGov poll conducted after the debate revealed that only 28% of registered voters support Biden’s candidacy, with 72% opposing his presidential run.

This shift in public sentiment has not gone unnoticed, with even the New York Times editorial board calling for Biden to step down in favor of a stronger Democratic candidate.

Crypto Takes Center Stage in Political Arena

While cryptocurrency wasn’t mentioned during the debate, it has become a hot-button issue in the election. Trump openly endorses crypto assets and accepts digital currency as donations, while the Biden administration’s approach to regulation is different from Trump’s.

Edward Wilson, an analyst at Nansen, highlighted this divide:

Trump’s acceptance and embrace of crypto are in stark contrast with the overwhelmingly regressive approach to crypto taken by the Biden administration.

Many U.S.-based crypto supporters now view regulation as a key election issue.

Polymarket Sees Record-Breaking Action

As the presidential race intensifies, Polymarket is experiencing a surge in activity. The platform hit $100 million in monthly trading volume in June, a first in its history.

Polymarket hit $100 million in monthly trading volume in June — *Polymarket monthly trading volume crossed the $100 million mark in June. Source: Dune Analytics*

The “Presidential Election Winner 2024” market alone has attracted a $204.9 million in bets. Trump currently leads with 63% odds of winning and $24.7 million in bets.

Bets on Biden’s potential withdrawal have also spiked. The “Biden drops out of presidential race” market now stands at 43% for “Yes” bets, while “Biden drops out by July 4” sits at 5%.

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The platform’s total value locked has increased by nearly 69% over the last 30 days. Other popular betting markets on Polymarket include cryptocurrency prices and the UEFA European Football Championship 2024.

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