An Ethereum ETF approval will cause an $11m dispute on Polymarket - here’s why
A decision from the Securities and Exchanges Commission regarding the Ethereum spot ETFs is expected at 9:30 pm London time on Thursday.
Ahead of the decision, users on Polymarket, a prediction platform that lets users bet on the outcome of events, have started to dig into the minutiae of what “approval” really means.
Before exchange-traded funds can officially begin trading, issuers must get approval for both 19b-4 filings and S-1 filings.
Thursday’s decision is for only the 19b-4 filing.
It could be months before S-1 filings are approved and trading begins.
This nuance is leading Polymarket bettors to prepare for the largest betting market dispute since the $2.2 million “Will the missing Titan submarine be found by June 23″ market in June of last year.
The “Ethereum ETF approved by May 31″ market now has $10.8 million on the line, up around $3 million in the last 24 hours, with bettors giving the approval a 65% chance of happening.
The market will resolve to “Yes” if any spot Ethereum ETF receives approval by the SEC by the May 31 deadline, otherwise it resolves to “No”.
At first glance, bettors’ allegiances seem to lie in where they have placed their money.
The largest all-time bettor on Polymarket, JustKen, who holds around 121,000 “No” shares, said they believe it is actually quite clear that both the 19b-4 and S-1 are required for an ETF to be considered approved.
On the other hand, 0xsmolbear76, who holds around 261,000 “Yes” shares, said they think any credible source stating the ETF received approval should cause the market to resolve to “Yes.”
Polymarket hasn’t made any official statements on the market amid the confusion among bettors.
Earlier in the year, Polymarket raised $70 million from big names like billionaire Peter Thiel and Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin.
The platform saw 1,773 active wallets generate $2.8 million in total volume on Wednesday.
The largest market is the 2024 US election market, which has seen over $132 million in bets, giving former President Donald Trump a 55% chance of winning.
Ryan Celaj is a data correspondent at DL News. Got a tip? Email him at [email protected].
