ETH/BTC Price Prediction: With A 75% Chance Of ETF Approval, Will Ethereum Price Touch $5,000?

From mundane directionless trading in the last few weeks, Ethereum price is on track to tag the $4,000 level this week and possibly continue to $5,000—a new historical milestone.

According to the ETH/BTC pair, the largest smart contracts token has already left the train station, rising by more than 18% from the May low of 0.04473BTC.

Why Optimism For Ethereum ETF Approval Jumped By 75%

In the last few months, the hope for the approval of spot Ethereum ETFs in the US has dimmed significantly until yesterday. The narrative has been that potential ETF operators have not had the same engagement with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), something they grew accustomed to weeks before Bitcoin ETF approval on January 10.

Moreover, regulators in the US have kept a hot and warm approach to Ethereum status, compelling some industry leaders to believe that an ETF is not possible if Ether is labeled an unregistered security.

According to the latest reports, the SEC has been seen to suddenly pivot on the potential approval of the industry’s second ETF product. This has seen analysts associated with Bloomberg increase the chances of approval from a meager 25% to 75%.

Renowned Bloomberg ETF analyst, Eric Balchunas reckoned Monday that the rise in the odds necessitated a rumor about the SEC “doing a 180 on this (an increasingly political issue).”

Balchunas added that like everyone else, he believed that spot Ethereum ETFs would be “denied.”

Update: @JSeyff and I are increasing our odds of spot Ether ETF approval to 75% (up from 25%), hearing chatter this afternoon that SEC could be doing a 180 on this (increasingly political issue), so now everyone scrambling (like us everyone else assumed they'd be denied). See… https://t.co/gcxgYHz3om

— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) May 20, 2024

Continuing his discussion on Tuesday, the ETF analysts’ odds went as low as 25% due to the deafening silence from the agency and how vague the “‘chatter’” around the Ether ETF was.

The message from Balchunas suggested that the approval of spot Ethereum ETFs had became a high-profile political issue. Therefore, it is likely that the sudden change by the SEC followed an eleventh-hour intervention from someone of a higher rank, possibly President Joe Biden. In the X post below Balchunas explains how and why the odds shifted.

It does.. hence 25% not 0%. Ironically we left small chance open as well in spot bitcoin process for Biden stepping in an 11th hour to tell SEC to deny it bc Dems were so anti-crypto a few mo ago. Life moves pretty fast.

— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) May 21, 2024

The approval of the ETF has already proved to be a game changer for the performance of Ethereum price, which had corrected to $2,800 earlier this month.

With Ethereum currently trading at $3,785 ahead of the possible approval, a breakout above $4,000 seems highly likely.

ETH/BTC Price Prediction: How Far Will Ethereum Price Rally Go

The ETH/BTC pair finally ascended above a long-term descending trend line on the four-hour chart. They has been backed by several indicators and patterns, including the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which holds at 85 in there overbought region.

Two successive golden cross patterns are also in support of the bullish outlook. The first pattern formed when the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) (the line in blue overlaying the chart) crossed above the 50-day EMA in red. Most recently, the same 20-day EMA climbed above the 200-day EMA in purple, reinforcing the bullish grip on the pair.

The ETH/BTC pair changed at 0.05528BTC during US business hours. Resistance at $0.05346, the local high stands in the way of further price movement. However, breaking above it could strengthen Ethereum against Bitcoin, targeting highs above $0.06,

A move as strong as this in the ETH/BTC pair would be accompanied by an even larger breakout in ETH/USD pair, which could rise above $4,000 this week bound by the ETF approval. Ethereum holders are staring at a possible climb to new all-time highs beyond the $5,000 market.

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