Ethereum ETF Approval Unlikely in May, Optimism for August

Despite the prevailing market sentiments and regulatory uncertainties, Michael Van De Poppe, CEO of MN Trading Consultancy, offers a differing outlook on the potential approval timeline for an Ethereum ETF. Van De Poppe suggests that while the approval of an Ethereum ETF in May is unlikely, there is an underappreciated chance for approval come August. “The markets are undervaluing a potential approval in August, as Ethereum is still getting sold off. I think the chances of an approval in August is positive, through which I expect Ethereum to outperform,” he stated.

The #Ethereum ETF is likely not going to be approved in May.

However, the markets are undervaluing a potential approval in August, as Ethereum is still getting sold off.

I think the chances of an approval in August is positive, through which I expect Ethereum to outperform. pic.twitter.com/9LzLFyz05N

— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) May 3, 2024

This more optimistic view contrasts sharply with the broader industry perspective, which remains largely pessimistic about short-term progress. Notable crypto figures and analysts, including Justin Sun, founder of the Tron blockchain, and Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas, have expressed doubts about a May approval. Balchunas placed the likelihood at only 25%, citing the SEC’s less active role in the process compared to their involvement during the Bitcoin ETF applications.

Normally I'd say this was good sign but as far as I know the Staff has not given any comments yet to the issuers, which is not a good sign as we past when they gave comments on btc ETFs. Further, there's no court loss hovering over. And the correlations bt futures and spot isn't… https://t.co/AVMhL1QKGf

— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) March 8, 2024

Regulatory Hurdles

Compounding the issue, there are increasing concerns that the SEC, under Gary Gensler’s leadership, might classify Ethereum as a security, which could further complicate the approval process. This follows recent speculations and the initiation of a lawsuit by Consensys against the SEC, which reflects growing tensions between the crypto industry and regulatory bodies.

Expanding on the regulatory theme, Michael Saylor has voiced concerns that not only will Ethereum face hurdles, but other prominent cryptocurrencies like BNB, SOL, XRP, and ADA could also be classified as securities. This could prevent their acceptance on Wall Street or the approval of their respective spot ETFs.

Michael Saylor predicts Ethereum Spot ETF will not be approved & deemed security.

After that BNB, SOL, XRP, ADA will be deemed security & none of them will get Spot ETF or accepted by wallstreet. pic.twitter.com/MpD6LkrYqQ

— Crypto India (@CryptooIndia) May 3, 2024

With the Ethereum ETF decision poised as a bellwether for the broader crypto ETF landscape, stakeholders from across the industry continue to watch closely, balancing cautious optimism with a readiness to navigate further regulatory challenges. The outcome in August could significantly influence the market’s trajectory and set a precedent for other digital assets.