Bitcoin Halving 4.0 Is A Success, What Happens to BTC Price Next?
The much-awaited Bitcoin halving event was finally completed on Friday, April 19, resulting in the programmed reduction in the creation rate of new BTCs. The halving event that happens once every four years cuts the mining rewards in half. The adjustment took effect at 8:10 p.m. on Friday evening New York time at the block height of 840,000, as confirmed by data from analytics platforms such as mempool.space and Blockchain.com. The Bitcoin price remained relatively stable, hovering near the $64,000 mark after the halving.
Bitcoin Halving And Price Action
With the Bitcoin halving 4.0 a success, the daily miner rewards drop to 450 Bitcoin, from 900. As the BTC halving reduces the supply of new Bitcoins in the market, analysts expect it to be a catalyst in order to drive the Bitcoin price higher. On the other hand, the strong demand from spot Bitcoin ETFs will further aid the bullish momentum. Some of the pro-Bitcoin lawmakers like Wyoming Senator Cynthia Lummis has also welcomed the recent development.
Happy Halving!
The 'Halving' is one of Bitcoin’s ingenious features that creates scarcity and value, in the same way that scarcity in gold creates value.
So, what exactly is the Halving? And, why is today’s extra special?
— Senator Cynthia Lummis (@SenLummis) April 19, 2024
However, banking giants like JPMorgan and Deutsche Bank believe that the Bitcoin halving has been already priced in. Kok Kee Chong, chief executive officer of Singapore-based AsiaNext, a digital-asset exchange for institutional investors, said:
“As expected, the halving was fully priced in so price movement was limited. Now the industry will have to wait and see whether a rally will occur in the coming weeks amid sustained institutional interest”.
The current optimism surrounding Bitcoin’s short-term prospects could face challenges due to broader macroeconomic factors, including indications from the Federal Reserve suggesting a pause in interest-rate cuts and escalating tensions in the Middle East.
While the halving event is likely to have a greater impact on Bitcoin mining firms rather than directly affecting the cryptocurrency’s price, it is expected to significantly impact their revenue. This blockchain update will potentially eliminate billions of dollars in annual revenue for miners. However, this effect may be lessened if the price of the cryptocurrency maintains its upward trajectory.
BTC Price Rally Ahead?
It is very likely that the Bitcoin price could continue to face some selling pressure for a few weeks, typically coming from Bitcoin miners. These miners are likely to sell their BTC holdings in order to compensate for the revenue losses post the halving event.
On the other hand, the BTC price has already given a massive 65% run-up this year so far after the launch of the spot Bitcoin ETFs. Despite the short-term volatility ahead, long-term investors can continue to add on dips. Historically, the Bitcoin price has always peaked in its bull market 518-546 days after the Halving. If this turns out to be true, the next Bitcoin peak would come sometime around September-October 2024.
When Could Bitcoin Peak In This Bull Market?
Historically, Bitcoin has peaked in its Bull Market 518-546 days after the Halving (Chart 1)
This is how typical Bitcoin Halving Cycles have progressed
So if history repeats…
Next Bull Market peak may occur 518-546 days… pic.twitter.com/QXZUS7ZyjU
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) April 19, 2024
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