Crude oil prices set to fall 10% by end of 2024

full version at invezz

Crude oil is widely recognized as a critical indicator of global economic health. And, if the recent movements in brent crude oil prices are anything to go by, the atmosphere looks bleak.

As of today, brent crude has dropped to around $87.07, slipping further after having fallen to $89.50 per barrel yesterday.

This decrease is part of a broader trend. According to recent data, the average annual crude oil price has fallen by close to 20% since 2022.¹ And, according to Invezz research, they could fall further. In fact, we expect it to drop by more than 10% still this year.

According to Invezz research, this trend is expected to continue, with predictions of a further decline exceeding 10% within the year. This projection highlights increasing concerns about the stability of oil markets and their broader economic implications.

Crude oil price decline: Two-year trend analysis

New research from Statista, published on April 16^th, studied the average annual OPEC crude oil price from 1960 to 2024 – the year OPEC first began, until now.

The data showed that, on average, the OPEC oil price has been falling consistently since 2022 – from an average OPEC oil price of $100.08 to an average of just $81.83 this year.¹

This ongoing price reduction could worsen, indicating more than just cyclical market adjustments.

World Bank has warned of further crude price fall

According to a forecast by the World Bank, oil prices may average as low as $80 per barrel in 2024.²

Assuming a brent crude oil price of $89.54 per barrel, this is a decrease of over $9, or 10.65%, in the coming months.

This anticipated decrease is grounded in several key economic and geopolitical factors.

Why crude oil prices are falling today

There are four main reasons which experts have recently highlighted as reasons why the crude oil price is depressed:

Oversupply in the US – Unlike OPEC nations, which have enacted voluntary supply cuts, the US continues to produce oil at rates that seem to be exceeding current demand.
Reduced demand from China – As the world’s largest fuel importer, any decrease in Chinese demand significantly impacts global oil prices. Recent economic data suggests a downturn in China’s oil consumption.
Shifts towards a cleaner economy – According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the oil price has steadied somewhat, after a huge post-Covid rebound to correct its price upwards. It also notes that “vehicle efficiencies and an expanding EV fleet [act] as further drags on oil demand.”³
Geopolitical tensions – Typically, conflicts like those between Iran and Israel would increase oil prices. However, current global demand uncertainties are inversely impacting prices during these conflicts.

Outlook for 2024-2025: IEA’s predictions

The latest IEA Oil Market Report (OMR)³ for April 2024 notes that:

World oil demand growth continues to lose momentum with Q1 2024 growth of 1.6 million barrels per day (mb/d), 120 thousand barrels per day below our previous forecast… growth in 2024 slows to 1.2 mb/d.”

Which is only going to slow further, according to the IEA, who forecast 1.1 mb/d on average for 2025.³

This will likely have dire consequences for the world’s economies at large. After all, oil accounts for roughly 3% of the entire global GDP according to the World Economic Forum.⁴ And many nations whose GDPs are significantly affected by oil exports include some of the world’s most vulnerable nations.

Recent trends in crude oil prices

Year	Average Annual Brent Crude Oil Price (USD)	Percentage Change
2022	$100.08	–
2023	$89.50	-10.6%
2024 (Forecasted)	$80.00	-10.65%

Note: Table values are approximations based on current data and forecasts.

What analysts have to say about the oil price

Trade Nation analyst David Morrison says that the threat of intensifying direct hostilities between Israel and Iran “has been shrugged off by traders”, although this he adds that this “should continue to put a floor under prices.”

Morrison agreed that waning Chinese demand could further depress oil prices, adding also that US interest rate cuts likely happening later than originally expected means that the economic stimulus that rate cuts would provide tis also being delayed.

Put all this together and the ongoing pull-back in crude looks reasonable. If the fall in crude prices is indicative of a decline in economic activity, then this could increase downside pressure on equity prices.”

What Invezz analysis says:

Invezz analyst Ritesh A. says that, in the short term, “crude oil is currently showing extreme weakness, making it inadvisable to initiate any bullish positions. If the price breaks below the $80.30 support level, the next support level can be found near $76.50.”

Longer term, Ritesh tends to agree with both Morrison and the Invezz research findings:

In the past few days, prices have been volatile due to the Israel-Iran conflict, but they have since resumed their downward trend due to concerns over a slowdown in global demand and rising inventories in the US.”